Why Rove is toast

I'd like as much as the next guy to see Rove "frog-marched" straight to jail. But barring an indictment, the best we can hope for is a guilty verdict in the court of public opinion. And this is looking pretty likely.

To understand this, everyone has to meet my coworkers, Jim and Tom. They're pretty average white-collar workers. I would imagine they're politically slightly right of center, mainly because they probably like things the way they are and don't want to pay taxes. They are politically apathetic, meaning they don't give a shit about the latest stupid Santorum comment that we here at Kos get our panties in a knot about.

What is remarkable about Jim and Tom is that they seem to exactly mirror the apathetic public's opinion on every single water cooler issue. Most of the day to day banter consists of the weather or some big fish somebody caught in Missouri. However, they also make the exact same hackneyed cracks that everybody makes about every single news story. After the Michael Jackson trial:

Tom: Well, with OJ, Robert Blake and now Michael Jackson, we all know this: if you're going to commit a crime, do it in California.

During the latest "Missing White Girl" saga, they wondered about the safety of traveling to exotic destinations. So these guys are my bellweather for popular opinion on every issue. Imagine my surprise when the following dialogue took place:

Jim: Tom, did you see this Rove leak deal?

Tom: Yeah, they'll never nail him on anything. Those politicians always get off.

Jim: He'll get off by saying, 'I didn't say her name."

Tom: Or it'll turn out that all he did was point to a picture or something (appropriate gesticulation).

These guys are looking at the media coverage of the Rovegate, adding in their own perceptions of the credibility of the administration, and coming to the conclusion that Rove is probably guilty of wrongdoing.

I don't want to draw any grand conclusions from this. However, the administration's credibility is in such bad shape right now, there is no benefit of the doubt (only 41% give Bush high marks for being honest). So it's up to the Democrats to instill suspicion of the administration on the Rovegate issue.

This isn't a trap; the apathetic public doesn't need an indictment to think that Rove really screwed up and should be fired. Furthermore, it's at this point where people are just finding out about it that their perceptions are shaped. It is also the time when the facts are the scarecest. We need to make sure that Karl Rove remains the issue, and allow people's distrust of the administration turn into popular opinion that Rove should be fired. A Rove firing, regardless of the implications, would be a tacit admission of guilt by the Bush administration. Smear Rove