A little on Roe

A popular bit of amateur wonkish thinking in the context of Supreme Court vacancies holds that creating a Supreme Court that would overturn Roe would be very good for the Democratic party. The theory is that if Roe were overturned and the states allowed to regulate abortion, the silent pro-choice majority who consider Roe settled law would mobilize and essentially destroy the Republican Party, which would continue to be beholden to its virulently anti-abortion base. Although I don't believe Roberts will vote to completely overturn Roe, I want to address why overturning Roe would be bad for the Democrats.

Most simply, it represents a defeat
The Democratic Party is an organization whose purpose is to implement the policies it wants, and prevent policies that it opposes. Ensuring the right to choice is one of these policy goals.

It would take a while
The Supreme Court won't be able to just immediately strike down Roe. It could take five or ten years to put the precedents in place for the landmark decision. The Democrats want to take back the government before that, right? And if we do take power in ten years, the country may be so fucked up we don't want to govern it.

Overturning Roe would take a court decision of a particular sort
This decision would have broader implications than simply eliminating the right to an abortion. There are two options. Striking down Roe could recognize compelling state interest to protect all unborn life, which is unpalatable because it would free states to ban birth control. It could also go even further and strike down Griswold and the right to privacy, which is a risk I'm not willing to take for any sort of political gain in other areas.

Making this decision would require a Supreme Court of a particular sort
One that would likely set back liberal causes a long ways by doing things like destroying the Federal Government's power to regulate. It might also blur the bounds between church and state, and be likely to side against many civil liberties claims. It's hard to say exactly what a Court like this would do, but whatever Court would overturn Roe wouldn't just go away after the decision. This Court might cause irreparable damage to the United States.

The pro-choice majority is a lot more tenuous than many assume
When NARAL cites statistics saying 60% of Americans are pro-choice, they are doing a disservice to everyone and fooling themselves. According to this compilation of abortion polling data, people agree that Roe should be upheld. However, many also ageree that abortion is murder. And when you remove abortions in cases of rape, incest and the health of the woman support for legal abortions falls below 50%. So while there are wacko fundamentalists on the one side who fall outside the mainstream, the NARAL ideal that abortion should not only be legal, but destigmatized is also well outside mainstream American thought. Republicans and Democrats would each probably gravitate toward the center of keeping abortions legal but heavily regulated. This would alienate the radicals on both sides: those who want legal abortion on demand and those who want to ban all abortion (and maybe birth control). This would create a better representation on public opinion in abortion policy and also a less vitriolic political atmosphere surrounding the issue, but it would also represent a significant policy loss as a woman's right to choose would be significantly threatened. Furthermore, the splintering that some predict for the GOP is just as likely to happen to the Democrats as they advocate regulations and alienate NARAL et. al.

My bet is that the Court will chip away at Roe but not strike it down, but it's worth looking at the political fallout regardless.