Supreme thoughts

As of yesterday, I said I had absolutely nothing to add to the Supreme court discussion. That hasn't changed, but having nothing to add never stopped me from commenting. So...

It looks like Bush pulled something of a bait and switch on the Religious Right. During the campaign, he said he was pro-life, but didn't have a litmus test. However, his discussion of judges and constitutional interpretation sure seemed like pandering, particularly his mention of Dredd Scott, which is supposedly wingnutspeak for Roe. Bush has never missed an opportunity to whip the Right into a frenzy, be it Terri Schaivo or gay marriage. But this week, when the rubber hits the road, the Republican leadership is telling wingnuts to cool it:

President Bush urged the Senate today not to listen "to the special interest groups, particularly those on the extremes" that are already engaged in a heated battle over the coming nomination to the Supreme Court, and he pledged that he would not screen out candidates solely on where they stand on divisive social issues.

Why is Bush suddenly trying to calm down the wingnuts? He must be thinking about appointing a good friend to the Supreme Court:

"I don't like it when a friend gets criticized," Mr. Bush said when asked about the attacks on Mr. Gonzales. "I'm loyal to my friends. And all of a sudden, this fellow, who is a good public servant and a really fine person, is under fire. And so, do I like it? No, I don't like it all."

The issue here is that Bush really wants to appoint Gonzalez to the Supreme Court. Bush values loyalty very highly, and would like Gonzalez on the Court, preferrably as Chief Justice, to create a legacy for him. However, Bush also might want to replace a moderate with a perceived moderate by putting Gonzalez in O'Connor's place. Slate says that it would be best to wait for Stevens to croak. This would create a court that would likely uphold Roe, but allow very heavy regulation of abortion. But can Bush afford the chance that Stevens holds out until '06 or maybe even '08? The Senate hearing for Gonzalez would almost undoubtably be nasty, with the torture memos coming up all over again. In the unlikely possibility that the Democrats gain control of the Senate, Bush wouldn't be able to offer Gonzo as the best case scenario for the Dems. Better to nominate him from a position of power right now.

Don't get me wrong, there's a lot more to this nomination than just abortion. But the abortion issue has the most potential political fallout. The wingnut base hasn't had this kind of opportunity since it became such a force in the Republican party. They've been driven by their frustration at never being able to get their way. Now the Republican party is going to reap the seeds it sowed in its deal with the devil. Do they appoint some wackos, or try to stay in the mainstream? Either way, the political fallout's going to be real interesting.