Change is inevitable

No shit Sherlock.

Reading all about Hackett and taking back the House in 2006 has me real fired up. There's something bigger afoot, though. The movement that Reagan brought to the fore in 1980 is in its decline, and something new will replace it. This is a historical inevitability; every dominant movement in the United States since the Civil War has had about 20-30 years in the sun before declining. Time's up for the Reagan Revolution.

Dominant political movements since 1865:

Reconstruction (1865-1877)

What it meant: Occupation of the South by the North after the Civil War. Essentially, the South became politically irrelevant and the Northerner dominated Republican Party dominated the Federal Government.

Achievements: Passed the Civil War Amendments banning slavery and granting equal rights to African-Americans (the 14th Amendment would be extended to women by th 19th Amendment and activist judges). Created equality for blacks that would not be equalled again until after the Civil Rights movement.

Downfall: Federal troops were pulled out of the South as part of the Compromise of 1877 resulting in the Nadir of American Race Relations as states assumed more power to discriminate. Many of the era's achievements were struck down by the United States Supreme Court through various cases, most notably Plessy v. Ferguson which established separate but equal as constitutional.

Progressive Era (1890-1920)

What it meant: A period of reform in American politics where reformers sought to change government starting at the local level. These changes eventually moved through the state and federal levels of government.

Achievements: The 18th Amendment banned alcohol (is that an achievemen?) while the 19th Amendment extended the suffrage to women. The progressive era also initiated the income tax, the popular election of US Senators along with popularizing the ballot initiative/referendum process. Many populist mechanisms (such as the recall) are relics of the Progressive Era. More notable Progressive Era laws can be found here.

Downfall: At the end of World War I, the United States was a different country economically and politically. In a new period of [debt financed] prosperity, Americans were less concerned with reform and more concerned with drinking at speakeasies. This resulted in a new rise of conservative ideologies.

The New Deal/World War II (1932-1950)

What it meant: Seeking to soothe the wounds of the Great Depression, Franklin Roosevelt implemented extensive government regulations during the 1930s.

Achievements: The New Deal brought about such staples as the FDIC and Social Security to help restore faith in the government. Supreme Court decisions in 1937 also spelled the end of Lochner era jurisprudence, allowing the government much more leeway to regulate under the Commerce Clause.

Downfall: New Deal liberalism didn't really fall down in the 1950s. It was replaced by its successor: the age of unions.

Union Dominance (1950-1970)

What it meant: Due to the strength of the economy and shortage of labor after World War II, organized labor had unprecedented abilities to dictate its agenda.

Achievements: Incredible economic growth and a thriving middle class were the hallmarks. This period also saw the Civil Rights movement and tremendous gains in race relations.

Downfall: With a decline in manufacturing jobs, unions faced declining membership and clout. Also, the stagnant economy of the 1970s had Americans looking elsewhere for leadership.

Reagan Revolution (1980-present)

What it meant: Ronald Reagan invited social cons into the big tent of the Republican Party creating a coalition that still dominates politics.

Achievements: I'm too bitter to talk about it.

Downfall: Fissures between the social cons and economic cons along with the rise of a new liberalism.

You see, we're not just going to take back Congress. The decline of the current Conservative movement is imminent. We have to fight for it, but it's going to happen. The new liberalism that's going to dominate can't be the 1960s liberalism that a lot of people would like to see. The world is too different. I'd like suggestions, but here's how I think we'll look back on early 21st Century liberalism:

New New Deal Liberalism (2010-2030)

Achievements: We'll expand civil and substantive rights. Civil rights means sanctity of privacy, free speech, separation of Church and state and gay marriage. We'll also bring American high schools to the place near the top where they belong and have universal health care, like any first world country deserves.