i love coalition politics

I went downtown and saw Chancellor Schroeder speak. He's an outstanding speaker, and his defeat is looking much less like a foregone conclusion. This is owed primarily to his charisma personal popularity as compared to the milquetoast Merkel. If Merkel wins it will be based entirely on dissatisfaction with unemployment. I'm going to take this entry to spell out a few of the complexities and possible consequences of the upcoming election.

1) A Christian Dem (CDU)/Merkel victory would be best for Germany economically
Schroeder and Merkel agree that Germany's taxes need to be cut and some of the social welfare programs reduced. The problem has been that Schroeder has been unable to get his reform agenda through because the CDU controls the upper house. Schroeder basically called the election because he can't do much of anything. Merkel would have a much stronger position. I don't see any reason why reelecting Schroeder would make any real changes all that likely.

2) Here's the nightmare scenario
Coalition politics, however, are never simple. Normally the SPD (Schroeder's Party) allies with the Green Party while the CDU coalitions with the Free Democrats (FDP). A rising force, especially in the East, has been the Left. Their agenda is so extreme that neither of the major parties will coalition with them. So if they get enough votes to make the traditional coalitions impossible, the only possibility is a CDU/SPD grand coalition. This looks like a nasty possibility that results in little more than a bunch of blame and little effective governance.

3) Fo/Po Ramifications
Merkel is implying that a stronger relationship with the US will help the German economy. While she has been clear to state that she does not want Germany to support the Iraq Adventure, Schroeder has been able to play to anti-Americanism by implying that a vote for Merkel might be supporting US neoconservativism. This seems like a fat sack of crap. Why would Merkel compromise her chances of economic reforms to follow Bush into another adventure?

4) Most American commentators have no idea what they are talking about
Could Germany's economy be in better shape? Sure. Are India and China rapidly gaining and taking jobs away from Old Europe? This is true as well. But all these statistics absolutely miss the point. Quality of life over here is so much better than for people in India and China. There are about 1.8 billion people in those countries who would do just about anything to enjoy their Saturday nights in discotheques and Sundays in idyllic beer gardens. Sometimes, Mr. Friedman, international geopolitics is not the most important thing for everybody. It's quality of life, stupid.