It's TRUE

I've been making it a facetious point for years, but Dubner finally shows that Mexicans are both hard working AND lazy!

And as I say that

The Wall Street Journal makes me eat my words with a pretty excellent article about how the Republicans have real problems, namely that their point of view doesn't really coincide with that of the vast majority of Americans. The fact that national security, the Repubs number one issue has come to the fore during the last few years has really served to cover up the growing rift between the Republicans and America.

He found that the party is significantly older and more conservative than it was a decade ago. That, he says, suggests a Republican Party increasingly at risk of being seen "as very old-fashioned, very old and not in touch with the realities of today's society."

It seems to me what we are seeing is that the Republicans are going to go through a malaise similar to what the Democrats did in the 1980s, where the idea of "liberalism" was seen as old and out of date. With the Democrats younger and more energized, and the Republicans a mess, the tables have hopefully turned after 25 years.

wall street journal

Well, I have begun receiving the Wall Street Journal again, since the subscription runs for a year. But seeing as that paper has been bought by the evil Murdoch in hopes of Timesing it, I don't think I can give them anymore of my hard borrowed money. Shame, too, since it was a good paper.

Law school

So I am now a law student. What exactly does this mean?

1) The workload is hard, but not ridiculous. There is a lot of reading. It is like taking Constitutional Law five times over (which was my hardest class in undergrad), except that all five classes are graded based only on one exam.

2) I feel young. Everybody else is older and has more experience. My colleagues are definitively men and women not boys and girls.

3) Some of the stuff is interesting, some of it is not. Like property. Is not. Interesting. Most of it dates back to medieval precedents that don't have a whole lot to do with anything. On the other hand, contracts and civil procedure have been better than I expected.

4) The professors are lawyers. That means they like to talk and be clever and charismatic. It doesn't mean they are always as great as they think they are, but it does keep things interesting.

Well, those are my first impressions, after an entire week. Should be a bit of an adventure.

the competence illusion

The "Lexington" column in this week's Economist has an interesting, and superficially true statement: voters in the 2008 presidential election will be more concerned about competence than anything else. The column then goes on to state that Mitt Romney's "competent" track record is being unfairly punished because the Republican nomination process is controlled by people who vote based on - gasp - issues.

Mr Romney's problem is that he is competence on steroids. He turned Bain Capital into a financial juggernaut and made himself $250m. He saved the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics. As governor of Massachusetts, he introduced one of the country's most ambitious health-care reforms. But he cannot dwell upon his real strengths until he first wins over the guys with the “Jesus is cool” T-shirts and the monkeys in nappies. A cruel business, politics.

Complaining about issue-based voters controlling the primary process is quite ridiculous. Historically, "manager" types like Romney have been losers. This is because voters tend to vote for candidates based on issues and personality, not whether or not the candidate is perceived as "competent." Based on his background, it's likely that he'll be friendly to business and somewhat ambivalent about social issues. These views conflict strongly with a large swathe of the Republican base, and as such, he's unlikely to be nominated. That people don't vote for people they disagree with is a feature of the system, not a defect.

An additional problem with the popular line about Romney being the "competent" candidate is that having a reputation for being competent in other lines of work is no guarantee of a person being a competent president. Running a campaign is actually a much better indicator of the job somebody will do as president than any previous position they might have held. That's because the president has rather limited concrete powers, and his or her ability to effectively implement an agenda comes down to an ability to connect with people and effectively use the bully pulpit... charisma. Although charisma is frequently demeaned as a superficial part of the campaign that has little to do with how a candidate might govern, it is really a critical part to being an effective president.

In addition to charisma, a president must have almost impeccable political judgment and the ability to lead a group. He or she has to be able to choose one adviser's advice over another's without causing the other to feel put out. These skills, along with the 24 hour stress of the presidency, are actually best tested through the wear of the stump, the quick decision making, and constant leadership a candidate must display on the campaign trail. Nothing Romney has done in his career comes close.

For an instructive example, look at another consummate "competence" candidate: Wes Clark. Clark was supposed to be the perfect candidate for a country in a hopelessly botched war: he'd been in charge of NATO. But it turned out he lacked political judgment and was milquetoast on the stump. So given these qualities, it's good he got beaten because he would have been an uninspiring president with poor political judgment. I'm not saying that Mitt will be like this, but we should give him some time before we say he'd certainly be a good president.

the insidious american dream

I agree with John Edwards that home ownership is a part of the American Dream, insofar as many people want to own homes. Of course, Edwards takes this to mean that the government should subsidize home ownership to the tune of a tax credit against a down payment.

Just because it is part of the "American Dream" doesn't mean it's a good thing. First off, one reason that we have the current economic issues and a bunch of people being foreclosed upon is because people who weren't ready to buy a house did it anyway. They got trapped into crappy variable rate mortgages, and were screwed when the interest rate rose. So the problem as far as home ownership in this country goes is not that people can't afford a down payment, it's that they don't know what they are getting into as far as monthly payments, and are in far too tenuous a financial situation to be taking on a mortgage.

Edwards also seems to be under the impression that ownership is a financial panacea, saying that "home ownership is the best way to establish a nest egg." This is just plain wrong. For many families, a home can be a good investment... it's about the only investment you can live in. But if you are not going to be staying in your home all that long, or you are getting into a bad mortgage, renting tends to be a better option. Plus, the real estate market is incredibly volatile and you have to pay property taxes on your investment every year, not just capital gains tax at when you cash out.

Plus, home ownership is already subsidized, since interest on your mortgage is tax deductible. The most basic economics/public policy principle is that you subsidize what you need more of. Well, we already have too much home ownership, and we're also subsidizing it. So how exactly further subsidy like Edwards is proposing is going to help anything is well beyond me. What we really need to do is persuade people that they might be better off renting, not encourage them to run headlong into buying when it might not be right for them.

Interesting

The EU's method of reducing carbon emissions may not be effective, but China is doing something I know will work: ban half the cars from the road.

During the current test period, cars with registration plates ending in odd and even numbers will each be banned from the roads for two day.

Any driver caught contravening the restrictions will be fined 100 yuan ($13, £6.50) by 6,500 police officers, many stationed at road entrances.

For me, this highlights the power of an oligarchy. If they want cleaner air and less traffic and less people spitting on the ground during the Olympics to please all the visitors, by gawd they are going to have it. This is a pretty striking contrast to the US, where common-sense ideas like CAFE standards become politically rancorous, and ethanol is considered an energy solution.

Obviously I don't support dictatorships. However, environmental issues are so important at this juncture, politicians need to take a harder look at which policies will work in the long term, not just what solutions appear environmentally sound and are easy to implement. After all, they are supposed to be the experts on policy, and they owe us good faith attempts at real solutions.

travesty

Interesting to note that the EU's policy of switching to 20% biofuel by 2020 is not a particularly good idea:

The EU target of ensuring 10% of petrol and diesel comes from renewable sources by 2020 is not an effective way to curb carbon emissions, researchers say.

A team of UK-based scientists suggested that reforestation and habitat protection was a better option.

I find this to be extraordinarily maddening, because we're not talking about a question of conflicting priorities or principles. It's a rather simple question of effectiveness. Now, if you believe that global warming isn't a big problem, or that it's just too expensive to deal with, you are stupid and wrong.

But if you are going to take the position that greenhouse gases need to be reduced, you should be in favor of the most effective possible method of doing so. In this case, the EU clearly believes greenhouse gases ought be reduced, but failed to ask people who would know if their solution was any good. So why don't they try to figure out the best way to do it? Why didn't they ask the scientists who did this study about reforestation? I'd really like to know.

The mystery of "Fred"

It strikes me that the entire intrigue of Fred Thompson's presidential campaign is that he's not a candidate yet, so everybody wishes he was one. Even if he acts like a candidate, he still leaves Republicans wanting more:

Staying true to his character so far, he was vague and coy, even when there was a shout from the crowd: “Hurry up and declare, already!”

It's smart to be vague and mysterious when that's the only weapon you've got in your bag. When your entire political resume is being an obscure backbench senator in a faction that most people don't really like any more (see DeLay and Gingrich), it's good to keep speculation focused on your "mysterious" intentions so they can't analyze your record.

I'm back

Ok, we'll see how long this lasts, since I am starting law school in about a week, and it's pretty unlikely that I'll have any readers and any time then. But I have time this week, so here goes.

Anyway, have a look at this:
Then think about the fact that the Fed listened to him and cut the lending rate. Cramer has a point: it is bad that people will lose their homes. But that doesn't change the fact that he's crazy and funny.

time for a real update!

So basically I have neglected my blog for almost a month. Really, it's a pity, but you haven't missed so much. Basically, I was supposed to finish up with my history paper when I got back from Mainz and before my dad came to visit on the 17th, but I was kinda wore out, so I just sat around, killed time, went to bars and went skiing occasionally, once at Wildschonau, once at Garmisch-Partenkirchen Classic area, and with my cousin at Serfaus-Fiss-Ladus. I also went to bars a lot.

When my dad came, we went to Budapest, which was really super cool. Just like in Italy, it's hard to resist the urge to speak German back at people who speak another language to you. The most practical thing to do is to speak English very slowly and gesticulate wildly. Hungarian is CRAZY. I didn't pick up any of it, like I did a little with Italian. It really has nothing to do with any language I've ever heard. It's more like what someone who has never heard German would say German sounds like: super harsh and very very gutteral. Basically, the thing you do in Budapest is go to the baths. It's also a beautiful city with most of the buildings being restored from the late 19th century. There are some relics from the Soviet days too: all the cars in the subway system were from 1972, and it was quite obvious that they were Soviet vintage.

Since then, I've been back in Munich trying to get ready for the start of the next semester. I got my last paper out of the way, which was really a hassle. I just hope that I pass the class. It's really bizarre to be just starting back up right now. What an injustice. Anyway, I'll post photos as soon as I can find them. The weather has finally improved here, so I should be outside more, which will be a nice change of pace.

i promise

I'll do a real update soon enough. But for now, let the record show that Keira Knightley is really talented.

haha

Prince Poldi, der Tor-König. And the King of Kölner hearts.

By the way, what are the chances the boy is playing for Bayern next year? I say 55%. He won't be in the 2. Bundesliga.